-||- DemoGRaphic Potential and Sustainable Economic GRowth -||-

|▶️| According to the preliminary results of the census of 2021 that were announced by the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT) about one month ago (on Tuesday July 19, 2022), the total permanent population of Greece stands at 10,432,481. Therefore the population has declined markedly by 3.5% over the past decade (between census of mid-2011 and census of end-2021).

|👉| The demographic problem of an aging and shrinking population is multidimensional, while it is worth mentioning that the impacts of demographics especially in the long run for the real market and economy are extremely serious.

|👉| Particularly, a strong demographic potential is necessary for a sustainable economic growth. Population is the basis for calculating all key economic and social indices and the number that determines the real market size i.e. the most crucial metric for the investment profile of a country. Moreover the population/market size is one of the key criteria for the assessment of a country as regards its competitiveness in the field of implementation of large-scale strategic investments in infrastructure, energy, power and utilities, logistics/transportation and other economic sectors.

|➡️| Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth Rate = Population Growth Rate + GDP per capita Growth Rate.

According to empirical results of numerous relevant studies the most important factors (independent variables) in the Regression Analysis (multi-linear regression) of the GDP growth (dependent variable) are the total population size, the labor force participation and the gross fixed capital formation (positive relationship).

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|📘🆘☑️| Proposed drastic measures so as to mitigate the double demographic crisis (ageing and shrinking population) and enhance in the long term the demographic potential of the country:

1. Establishment of a National Strategy (Master Plan) for the effective confrontation of the deep demographic crisis based on the relevant reports that have been discussed in the Hellenic Parliament in the recent years. The enactment (as separate and specified legal framework) of the particular Master Plan/Road Map with a determined implementation program is more urgent than ever given the fact that the first results of a coherent demographic policy will be visible after 8-10 years.

Direct Economic/Financial Incentives

2. Granting a special one-off financial aid at the birth of a child that will start from €5,000 at the 1^st and 2^nd birth and will increase geometrically at the 3^rd and the next births. In comparison, Hungary is starting the provision of €32,000 grant for a 3^rd child.

3. Significant increase of the level of income-tax-free threshold as a consequence of a new birth.

4. Providing low-interest or interest-free mortgage loans to young families and especially young specialists with higher education (so as to avoid a further brain drain).

Long term goal [1]: Annual number of births: over 120,000 so as to be mitigated the alarmingly negative natural rate (births-deaths).

Dynamic and immediate integration of immigrants into the indigenous population

5. Introducing a modern and proactive immigration policy with conditions and criteria for the selection of immigrants tailored to the needs of the Greek economy. Immigration in Greece has the potential to become a significant factor in achieving the goal of halting population decline and improving the age structure of the country.

Long-term goal [2]: A sustainable positive annual migration rate of over 60,000 people so as to achieve the stabilization and even the beginning of a slow increase of the total population of the country.

As success stories in the demographic policy could be mentioned countries like Sweden or Belgium that increase significantly their population as a result of the successful integration of important number of immigrants every year. For instance Sweden’s population has increased from just 8.9 mil. in 2002 to 10.5 mil. in 2022 surpassing the population of Greece (10.4 mil.) and Belgium which has until 2009 a smaller population than Greece its today’s (2022) population has exceeded 11.6 mil.

6. Construction of new nursery schools covering not only the large cities but the whole Greek territory.

7. Transformation in public sentiment upon organization of a wide marketing campaign for supporting new society standards in the context of which will be included a healthy work-life balance for the creation of family and personal life in parallel with the career path and the personal development.

Apart from the above it is worth mentioning that the development, implementation and financing of strategic, large-scale and emblematic investments that could create thousands of new jobs are necessary for the increase of the labor force of the country, the mitigation of population shrinking through the indirect increase of births and the strengthening of brain regain trend i.e. the repatriation of young Greeks who immigrated during the period of financial crisis and deep recession (2008-2016).

The empowerment of the human capital of Greece is not impossible. The demographic problem must be addressed immediately. It is not easy but it is absolutely feasible.

*|❗️|* It is more certain than ever that demographics will drive the economic future of Greece

|✔️| Therefore, let’s build an efficient and effective long-term population policy for our country

|🔷| Let’s take action in order to overturn the trend of population decline

|🇬🇷| Let’s strengthen Greece

|🔷| Let’s build a brighter future of sustainable growth for all…

Map of Population Density in Greece (inhabitants per sq. km)

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